Kyrgyzstan as another victim of the "velvet revolution" was spoken of soon after the "orange revolution" in Kiev and the unexpected visit to Moscow by President Askar Akaev has propped up the suspicion.
As it has turned out, the opposition in the Kyrgyz capital is seriously tuned to a "velvet" change of power if Mr. Askar Akaev, whose presidential term ends this year according to the Kyrgyz Constitution, decides to run for third term or finds another way of remaining in office or tries to find his own man as a "successor".
Three possibilities are viewed allowing Mr. Akaev to retain power. One is "Belarussian", connected with the holding of a referendum on prolonging his presidency. But then, the referendum has to get a parliamentary approval.
Second, Mr. Akaev goes for canceling the Constitution article limiting his presidency by two terms. Here too, a parliamentary approval is required.
Third, the parliament votes for a parliamentary republic; on eve of the presidential election Mr. Akaev resigns, is elected a member of parliament and becomes its speaker. Here, the main role goes to the parliament: it is to decide on a parliamentary-presidential republic.
In other words, in each case Mr. Akaev and his company are in need of "own" reliable parliament also in case of the "successor" version.
The presidential election in Kyrgyzstan is set for October, but the struggle for power has already begun. The parliamentary elections are not only the paving of ground for the presidential election but an acid test which will show the capability of each side in the struggle for power.
The recent developments in Kyrgyzstan show that the opposition is close to snatching the political initiative from the present power. The alignment of forces - both political and civil - is no guarantee of a definite victory of a side during the parliamentary elections.
The parliament may be far from homogenous. It is hard to say in whose favor the pre-presidential election situation may develop. Much will depend also on the position of the "third force" - the group of medium-size businessmen and emerging oligarchs, which are still barred from big-time commerce by the Akaev group. Many of them are running for Zhogorku Kenesh.
However, the elections will not be easy for the authorities, as it seemed to many. Meanwhile, a large group of over 550 observers has arrived in Bishkek. Over 200 of them are observers from the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe and 218 observers from the Commonwealth of Independent States.
