Even despite a raging controversy round Ukraine's presidential poll, Russian and European Union summiteers came up in The Hague today with optimistic accounts of their present-day partnership, and no less optimistic forecasts of upcoming contacts. If they had no grounds for this optimism, Russian and European diplomacies would have to acknowledge their bad rebuff.
Russia is a country with whom we share values, and with whom we are in lasting partnership, said Jan Peter Balkenende, the Netherlands' Prime Minister, while summing up the conference.
It did not take the summiteers big efforts to cope with the diplomatic problem that faced them. They proved present-day success of close Russia-EU partnership, and chartered further progress, irrespective of whatever unexpected predicaments that may slow it down. After all, it is actual achievements that count-not how long they have taken, Mr. Balkenende remarked on that score.
Ukraine was prominent on the summit agenda, and had every reason to be. A large country in Europe's heart, it split into East and West with last Sunday's presidential runoff. The two parts of the country have polarised over their political sidings-a majority in the West is for Westerniser Victor Yuschenko, and the East for Victor Yanukovich, whose political sympathies belong to Ukraine's eastward neighbour.
Russia and the European Union have different stances on the Ukrainian situation, Mr. Balkenende was forced to acknowledge. The runoff left the European Union badly disappointed. Its alarm grew all the worse after the Central Election Commission announced Yanukovich winner. Now, on EU behalf, the Dutch Prime Minister said again that he would not put up with Ukrainian election returns as the poll did not comply with international standards.
Russia, on its part, has long made its choice and determined its position. An indicative greeting message President Vladimir Putin sent to Yanukovich from The Hague on the summit day need not to be read between the lines. It clearly says Russia will not recognise any other Ukrainian president but Yanukovich. "The Ukrainian nation has made its choice in favour of stability, stronger statehood, and further progress of democratic and economic reforms," Russia's president reassures Yanukovich.
Now, can the dispute over Ukraine hamper Russian-EU partnership any seriously?
Not in any way, say diplomats as they refer to long-term prospects. There are hard facts to reckon with, however. The Ukrainian predicament comes up as yet another obstacle to Russian-European rapprochement. The other obstacles are known to all-these are differences over Russian policies in Chechnya, the Yukos affair, Kaliningrad transit problems and, last but not least, a vague legal status of ethnic Russians in the post-Soviet Baltic countries.
An ambitious Russian-European project was launched in St. Petersburg eighteen months ago to aim at four united environments, which concern economic teamwork, domestic and international security, and research and cultural contacts-real big goals. Related practical efforts are marking time, however, with discord round them. The European Union thinks it is necessary to develop all the environments simultaneously. Russia views the matter differently, with economic links and the anti-terror cause for top priorities, while progress in all the other fields, with their disputable aspects, is to go on as far as possible without speeding it up.
As far as we can judge by the joint summit statement, the conferees make it a point, as usual, to avoid issues that may breed bitter disputes. They stress partnership achievements-for instance, Russia ratifying the Kyoto protocol, and mention problems only in passing. Many expected the European Union to come harshly down on Russia. In fact, not a single critical word was said.
The reason for that leniency might lie with Ukraine. The United Economic Environment of Russia, Ukraine, Belarus and Kazakhstan is convening its heads of state for summitry next month. Victor Yanukovich, with his firm pro-Russian orientation, may appear there as his country's new president. That will offer Russia a vast chance to become heart and leader of post-Soviet economic integration, considering the Ukrainian potential. Such integration is far more probable than the four united environments of Russia and the EU.
It is hard to predict what turn contacts with the European Union may take if Russia thus enhances its influence-and Ukraine comes as key reason for vagueness.
