The Moscow-based newspaper Vedomosti compares today's situation with 2000, an extremely lucrative year for petroleum industry, to which Russia owes a greater part of its currency inflow. The bank added a mere $15.5 billion to its reserves throughout that year.
Economic analysts are highlighting several factors out of Central Bank control, to which it owes its rapid accumulation.
First, exorbitant petroleum prices account for record-breaking export revenues. The trade balance surplus exceeded a monthly eight billion dollars two months running-August and September. Previous Russian exports exceeded imports by a mere six billion, points out Evgeni Gavrilenkov, Troika Dialogue Co. head economic expert.
The nominal rouble rate has gone 1.6 per cent up since October 12. Exporters preferred to keep their currency revenues on overseas deposits all through last summer. October moved them to get rid as soon as possible of their plummeting dollars.
Bankers are doing the same, says Oleg Solntsev of the Centre for Macroeconomic Analyses and Short-term Prognostication. As he sees the matter, bankers are out to benefit on the Central Bank U-turning its rate policies. More than that, Russian-based banks and companies resumed active attraction of money from other countries this autumn.
Analysts think currency fever has passed its peak now. Many do not think currency reserves will add more than five billion dollars before the year's end. They are finishing foreign currency transfers into roubles. As for the trade balance surplus, it cannot alone bring a huge reserve increase on a par with last month's. However, certain experts are sure the Central Bank will see New Year in with reserves leaping over a $120 billion mark.
