The stock market has soared in response while experts have divided in their reaction.
It is the established fact that the YUKOS share-holders and board chairman Viktor Gerashchenko had an argument some time ago. If the conflict is persisting, Gerashchenko's statement can be at odds with the true state of affairs.
But if it really shows how the land lies, a mechanism for implementing the transaction appears to be not that simple. This is above all due to the small probability that the federal tax service will renounce the already-declared tax claims, says Yury Rostikov of the investment company "Eurofinances". In his opinion, a more plausible scenario will boil down to granting the right to pay the debt in installments, which too could become good news for minority share-holders.
The government's delays in selling Yuganskneftegaz are giving rise to all manner of rumours, even to the allegation that Yugansneftegaz is not to be sold at all. As to Gerashchenko's rhetoric, it has provoked an idea that the oil company's assets will be left intact. The delayed auction on the sale of Yugansneftegaz inspires hopes in YUKOS share-buyers that no ultimate decision on selling out the oil holding's assets has been taken.
In the opinion of some experts, the sale of the Menatep-owned YUKOS shares could be a relatively peaceful outcome: the value of the company's shares will grow to produce quite a favourable effect on the stock market as a whole. Sergey Suverov of the Zenith rocket corporation asserts that such a development will make us witness to a major compromise between the government and business with an eventual dramatic rise in the quotations of YUKOS and other Russian companies."
There is the assumption that the government has agreed with YUKOS co-owners upon the purchase of the controlling bloc of shares. If Gerashchenko's statement is not groundless, there is the likelihood that the government and YUKOS spokesmen have established contacts with the prospect of YUKOS preservation in exchange for the refusal of YUKOS owners from their share in the company.
Two events can prove whether this assumption is right or not. Above all, these are decisions to be taken by the share-holders' meeting on December 20. Another indication can be the results of the company's tax inspection for 2003. An insignificant sum of claims can show that the talks between the share-holders and the government have come to a definite result.
One can wonder who will purchase the assets in this case. Adam Landes of the investment company Renaissance Capital believes that if it is true that Menatep is looking for the sale of the YUKOS shares, many would like to oblige. The purchase of the YUKOS basic package for the current price (in contrast to Yuganskneftegaz estimated at its full value) can be afforded by many companies, including Gazprom, Surgutneftegaz, LUKOIL and Sibneft.
Anyway, the deal will call for approval from the government as well as the restructuring of the company's tax arrears.
