"Political gains were certainly reached here. Our entering the WTO may be alleviated in some way due to the fact that we are moving forward on the Kyoto protocol," Ms. Kashirova said, adding that political gains might be serious .
At the same time, the possibility to get economic dividends from ratification of the Kyoto protocol looks rather vague to her. Russia, which has reduced the emissions of greenhouse gases lately, wants to sell quotas on harmful emissions to other countries, first of all in the EU. But, in Ms. Kashirova's words, the prices for quotas on harmful emissions, which will be known in January 2005, "are unlikely to be high."
Besides, by the expert's data, Russia may turn out the last one in the queue to sell quotas. "There is information that the European Union will first of all buy them from its members - East European countries. Only after that, we will have a chance to enter this market. Will there be anything left for us?" said Ms. Kashirova.
She noted that the commitments Russia undertook on the Kyoto protocol supposed modernization of the Russian industry, which is out of line with the modern environmental requirements. Expert assessment of the necessary means to retool Russia's industry is much higher than the figures defined by the bill on the Kyoto protocol ratification.
"The bill on protocol ratification announced figures in line with which Russia will annually need additional 20 million rubles to retool industry ($1 equals 28.77 rubles by the Central Bank exchange rate) and a one-time payment of 60 million rubles in the beginning. The demand in reality is much higher. By the most modest calculations, some $3-4 billion are required annually to retool the industry," said Ms. Kashirova.
