The political explanation for Russians' support for Bush is mainly pragmatic: cooler relations between the U.S. and Europe will facilitate the conclusion of treaties between Russia and America, and the growing tension between the U.S. and China (Bush is a staunch supporter of Taiwan's sovereignty) will create favorable diplomatic conditions for Russia in that area, as well.
At the same time, hidden behind far-reaching geopolitical plans are rather specific economic interests of Russian business. Renaissance Capital experts believe that a Bush victory promises huge profits for Russian metallurgy, the power energy industry, alternative and mobile communication operators, airlines, shipping companies, and mineral fertilizer producers.
According to Erich Krauze, an analyst from Sovlink investment, Mr. Bush is better for Russia because his policies lead to significant increase in oil prices.
Russian operators of fixed telecommunication networks, arms exporters and LUKoil executives, on the contrary, are more interested in a Kerry victory, suggest experts from Renaissance Capital.
Analysts explain that fixed telecommunication networks operators are not happy with the demands of the Republican administration on the de-monopolization of the telecommunications market in Russia before it joins the WTO. Russian arms exporters hope for a potential chance thanks to Mr. Kerry's willingness to consider the opinion of other countries during the establishment of a world order. LUKoil executives expect a more favorable attitude toward their projects in Iraq, whichsuffered significantly as a result of the Republicans' unilateral world outlook.
