Irina Khakamada, co-chairperson of the 2008: Free Choice committee, believes that this trial has already had global consequences for Russia. For instance, medium capital is leaving this country either legally or illegally. Negative capital growth has been posted since Mr. Khodorkovsky's arrest, with capital-flight volumes exceeding capital influx. Ms. Khakamada is 100% sure that Khodorkovsky will be found guilty, and though she is not a professional, she believes he might be sentenced to four to ten years in prison.
This will be a two-stage affair, Mikhail Delyagin, member of the Rodina party's political council and chief of its program committee, said. First of all, news about Mr. Khodorkovsky will become quite routine, like an ordinary weather forecast, and then he will be sentenced. As I see, Mr. Delyagin said, he will have to serve six or seven years in prison.
We already know what will happen to Yukos, Moskovsky Komsomolets analyst Mark Deich said. Instead of going under, the company will be divided into several entities, with its owners changing hands. To my mind, the Khodorkovsky trial will last for quite a while (maybe a year) and he will obviously be found guilty. Still I get the impression that this particular court will heed various extenuating circumstances, such as Khodorkovsky's awards, etc. Consequently, the court verdict will be quite appropriate; taking his current prison term into account, he will be released.
If it is an open and transparent trial, it will highlight Russia's ineffective law-enforcement and judicial system, Ella Pamfilova, chairperson of the presidential human-rights commission, noted. First of all, this will provide the president with a pretext for resolutely overhauling this system and replacing its top officials, and, if Khodorkovsky is convicted, a chance to display his humanity and pardon him.