The MEDT predicts a drop in the Russian Urals oil price to $28-29 per barrel by the end of 2004 according to optimistic scenario. But experts think the cost of one barrel is unlikely to fall below $30 for one barrel, writes the newspaper Izvestia.
Even with $30 per barrel for a period ending in 2007, the GDP growth is not to exceed 6.7%. For doubling GDP by 2010, it is required to achieve higher growth rates, says Andrei Klepach, head of the MEDT macroeconomic forecast department. A doubled GDP presupposes some definite steps: structural reforms to lead to lower economic dependence on oil as well as an administrative reform called to enhance the efficiency of government. But the scourge is slackened reforms.
Troika Dialogue's chief economist Yevgeny Gavrilenkov believes that the burgeoning positive economic shifts were clouded by such events as the Yukos scandal, the banking crisis and the restrictions on capital inflow.
In the opinion of Economic Expert Group boss Yevsei Gurvich, the current MEDT forecast is making the budget structure unbalanced already today. "With oil prices going down, the budget structure might turn into a problem," warns Gurvich.
Most experts share the opinion that no matter what figures you cite and what MEDT forecast can be, business people often "vote with their feet" in response to higher government control over the economy without any solutions for its reforms.
