None of RIA Novosti's interviewees thought the Yugansk would go off for a song, despite all the trials and tribulations of the mother company.
The latest Yukos-related developments show that authorities have grown more benign toward the Yukos than they were recently. The highly respected Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein investment bank has been asked to take part in Yuganskneftegaz evaluation, and Sergei Oganesyan, Federal Energy Agency chief, has come up with several reassuring statements. All that allows to hope for an unbiased Yugansk evaluation, said Zarko Stefanovsky, Aton investment company analyst. However, many burning issues stay unsettled to this day, so it is too early to expect a happy ending of the Yukos plight, he warned.
The market has optimistically met the Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein appearance-it promises that the Yuganskneftegaz will not be sold dirt-cheap. On the other hand, it shows that the Russian government is serious about the Yuganskneftegaz sale, so the Yukos is doomed to lose its principal branch, says Rostislav Musienko, BrokerCreditService expert.
Dresdner Kleinwort Wasserstein involvement will have an impact only on the public image of the affair. True, it promises a just and unprejudiced asset evaluation-but Yukos stockholders will not gain anything with it, Stanislav Kleschev, Financial Bridge investment company analyst, remarked with skepticism. He proceeded from past Yukos rates to evaluate the Yuganskneftegaz at $15-20 billion and its control block at $7.5-10 billion, accordingly. Yukos back taxes have been evaluated at $7 billion for 2000-2001. The expert estimates upcoming fiscal claims for 2002-2003 at another $5 billion-so a lump claim for the three preceding years will be more than enough to rob the Yukos of Yuganskneftegaz control stock, he says.
Alla Petrova, Web Invest Bank stock market analytical board manager, sounded far more reassuring. She expects things to look brighter for the Yukos within a few days. "Right, the company is on the brink of bankruptcy, and creditor banks have announced its default. However, Yukos has its export returns to guarantee the problem loans, and a part of those returns has already come up in repayment. The dark prospects of the Yukos suspending or stopping oil extraction have sent the global petroleum market into a fever-but then, the OPEC does not think such stoppage will actually cut world oil offers." The expert does not think the Yuganskneftegaz can ever be sold. Russian purchasers will find the purchase unaffordable, while Western-based companies will hardly ever venture to buy up a Yukos branch, with legal disputes raging round it, she argues.
Meanwhile, Yukos stock came 7.44% up against yesterday's closing time as soon as the Moscow Interbank Currency Exchange opened its session today. The entire day sent it skyrocketing by 18% to lead the bullish blue chips.
