"The recent developments in Georgia allow conclusions to be made that Saakashvili will repeat the fate of his predecessors Zviad Gamsakhurdia and Eduard Shevardnadze. Like these previous presidents of Georgia, Saakashvili has come to power on the wave of promises. Unable to bring well-being and prosperity to their people, Gamsakhurdia and Shevardnadze had to retire from the scene to the whooping of belligerent crowds, and Saakashvili follows their way, the political scientist believes.
In his opinion, people are still backing the young president by virtue of the ethnic intolerance syndrome revived by him. "Meanwhile, contradictions are ripening inside Georgia, which will unavoidably lead to explosion", he believes.
"First of all, the present leadership of Georgia has no economic strategy. Snatching from the rich and giving it to the poor is a populist slogan which will never come true. There no signs that the present authorities are trying to carry it out", Dumava said.
He reminded in this connection of the increasingly frequent actions of the Georgian population in defence of their economic rights. "The rising prices of staple foods, increasing unemployment, violation of the elementary human rights, the sway of corruption and crime are not the legacy of the past regime, as the new men in Tbilisi brought to power by the 'rosy revolution' are trying to present, but a result of the ambitious policy of the Georgian president in every sphere of societal life", Konstantin Dumava believes.
On the other hand, present-day liberal economic models are not "striking root" in Georgia. "For instance, Georgia does not take in Kakha Bendukidze (Russian oligarch, ethnic Georgian which Saakashvili has taken from Moscow to appoint as the economic minister). They actually do not let him work", Dumava said.
Another factor negatively telling on the societal climate in Georgia is the "primitive tale-telling" instilled by the authorities among the Georgian elite. "If, for instance, a deputy minister tells on his chief, the teller's own sins will be forgotten and he may even be encouraged", the politologist said.
He believes that the business elite's business representatives' lack of trust in the state is made worst by the increasing arrests of businessmen and officials with subsequent setting free those who pay "smart money" to "the treasury".
"Suspicion is ruling in Georgia. In this atmosphere it is hard to expect efficient economic development and the attainment of goals which Saakashvili is not tired of declaring", Dumava said.
Summing up the situation, he concludes that the drawn-out economic crisis in Georgia gives birth to serious political problems for Saakashvili.
"Saakashvili has used as a lightning-conductor for the popular disgruntlement with his activities the military provocations against the two mutinous provinces - Abkhazia and South Ossetia. He has made use of the principle that in the Caucasus men have always been ready to settle their disputes by force. This is another proof of Saakashvili's inconsistency as a political leader", the politologist stressed.
