Fitch Ratings says in a press release that thanks to a high degree of diversification of accessible reserves, the possible suspension of Yukos exports will have no major impact on oil companies of the region and will not lead to an inevitable change in their ratings.
According to Fitch Ratings, despite the fact that the export of crude oil is essential to Russia's economy and Yukos is the nation's biggest oil producer, the company's supplies are unlikely to be suspended until September. August is the last month Yukos has prepaid for to the pipeline operator Transneft, the agency says.
Despite yesterday's statement by the Russian Justice Ministry that it had no intention to suspend the production and sale of Yukos oil and taking into account Fitch's opinion that Transneft will not deliberately cut down on Russian oil exports, it is assumed that in case Yukos' oil production and supplies get disrupted, Central European oil refineries will be able to find alternative suppliers in Russia or to start importing from other countries, albeit at higher prices.
Should refining companies in Central Europe have to shift to other importers, ones recovering oil in the Northern Sea, in Africa, or elsewhere, those refineries' competitive price advantages may be reduced somewhat owing to a gap between the price and the cost of the supplies.
Parallel to that, the output of light refined products will increase, Fitch Ratings says. Most of the refineries in the Central European region can process cheaper and heavier crude with a higher sulfur content, like in Russia's Urals crude. On the other hand, they can produce high-quality products up to the EU standards, Fitch Ratings says in its press release.
