According to Maxim Shein, chief of Brokerkreditservis' analytical department, the current situation affects the prices of oil and petroleum products already now, and not only on the domestic market.
"Yukos' share in Russia's total oil production is around 20%, and the company's share in Russia's oil processing is about the same. If Yukos stops oil production, oil refineries will find themselves in a difficult situation, and this will lead to a drop in the volume of oil-processing. There is no doubt that this will have a negative effect on the prices of petroleum products on the domestic market," Shein said.
In his opinion, should the situation develop this way, it will affect world market prices as well. "The thing is Yukos produced 1.6 million barrels of oil a day, while the world's daily oil output is 80 million barrels. Thus, the company accounts for 2% of the world's oil output. "This is neither much nor little, but it will have an effect," Shein believes.
Alexander Razuvayev, leading analysts with Megatransoil, also believes that, should Yukos stop oil production, we can expect higher prices of oil and petroleum products.
"This step will also have negative social consequences. However, we do not think that the company will stop oil production for a long time. The government is not interested in this. Yukos facilities will continue to produce oil, but they will have another owner," Razuvayev notes.
Oleg Nesterov, expert of the Troika-Dialog investment company, believes that if Yukos really stops oil production, it will only do so for a short time. "Most probably, there will be an effect, but not a lasting one." He says.
In his words, the situation that has evolved around Yukos has a rather strong impact on oil exports andit will continue to be so "unless the situation changes for the better."
At present, foreign markets have registered a steep rise in oil prices. Experts believe that this rise is directly related to the current situation around Yukos.
