"TBILISI SCENARIO" POSSIBLE IN UKRAINE?

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MOSCOW, June 28 (RIA Novosti) - The Director of the Political Studies Institute, Sergei Markov believes that "the Tbilisi scenario" might repeat during the presidential elections in Ukraine on October 31. (Late last year, opposition forces practically overthrew Georgian President Eduard Shevardnadze, and early this year, pro-American-minded Harvard graduate Mikhail Saakashvili became the head of state).

"The Tbilisi scenario might repeat. By our data, such technologies are being prepared. If on election night the opposition declares that the elections were held not properly, parliament will be stormed, and anything may happen," Markov said at a RIA Novosti press conference on Monday.

In the political scientist's words, "Ukrainian elections are the main political event of 2004 and for Russia." He explained that for Ukraine this year is the choice of political orientation. "Ukraine will hesitate between Russia and the West," Markov said.

In his words, two candidates for the post of Ukrainian president are already known. "The first one is a Polish-American one [the leader of Our Ukraine party bloc, Viktor Yushchenko], and the second one is Russian-Ukrainian [Ukrainian Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich]."

"Yushchenko is under the tough control of American policy. It seems to us that the main aim of this project is the loss of Ukraine's independence and the creation of a controllable conflict between Russia and Ukraine," he noted.

"In case Yushchenko comes, Russia-Ukraine military-technical cooperation will be ruined, the Russian Black Sea Fleet will be ousted from Ukrainian territory, and forcible de-Russification will take place. Forces behind Yushchenko's back will demand that the state authority liquidate the Ukrainian Orthodox Church," Markov said.

That's why, in his opinion, "the presidential election night will be sleepless for the Kremlin, Brussels and Washington."

Markov also said that Russia and Ukraine will find it hard to develop without close cooperation. "Ukraine's drift toward the West does not contradict Russia's interests. We need to carry out this drift together," said the political scientist.

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