In his opinion, developments in Iraq develop as forecasted by many experts. Iraqi resistance to foreign presence has become a law-governed outcome of the American policy in Iraq, Washington's lack of understanding of the Iraqi traditions.
The expert stressed that there was an opportunity for the Americans to preserve a stable situation after overthrowing the Saddam Hussain regime. For that, power was to be preserved in the hands of the local elite, the administration apparatus preserved on the basis of the Baas party, the police and the army. Only the punitive apparatus of the secret services was to be replaced. This could to be done last May and the buildup of the Iraqi political system has to begun today from scratch. "The occupation force will actually have nobody to pass power to on June 30, the official date of ending the occupation", Satanovski believes.
A civil war is under way in Iraq now. The "all-against-all regime" has been put into operation in the country, the Russian expert thinks. He disagrees with the present opinion that different groups in Iraq have wiped aside their differences inside the country for struggle against the occupation force.
According to Satanovski, clashed between different Iraqi clans, elimination of leaders in the shiite south are held parallel with attacks on foreigners. At the same time, he noted, the coalition troops prevent Iraqi groups from settling differences between themselves but their presence provides a pretext for any Iraqi leader to rally his supporters for the struggle.
At the same time, the Russian expert believes, a withdrawal of the foreign military contingent will plunge Iraq into anarchy and lead to the country's disintegration. In addition, Satanovski warns, the Iraqi chaos will inevitably spread over the entire Middle East. "The foreign troops can be pulled out of Iraq only after it has been pacified at any cost", he stressed.
