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Russian Scientist Predicts Outcome of 2016 US Election

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The Russian Academy of Sciences' Institute for World Economy and International Relations published its annual foreign policy forecast, detailing US internal politics. And the winner is...

Hillary Clinton. She, according to the Russian Academy of Sciences' Institute for World Economy and International Relations' (IMEMO) annual forecast is poised to defeat Republican Marco Rubio in November.

The report, ostensibly written to inform Russian policymakers on trends in foreign policy, features issues which are obvious to almost any informed observer looking at the United States in terms of both internal politics and foreign policy. The report was financed by British oil and gas giant BP, according to the report's edition notice page.

"Her success at the last stage of the electoral race will in large part depend on the ability to do the impossible: to offer a golden mean, which will satisfy both of America's [political] poles," the report said.

According to the report, the "entire female electorate" of the Democratic Party supports Clinton, although polling from New Hampshire shows Bernie Sanders leading Clinton among women, and her downward trend among Democratic women has been known at least since September.

"The party elite reckons that he will not only unite the Republican electorate at the primaries stage, but also at the stage of the inter-party struggle attract moderate independent voters, and in this way counter Hillary Clinton, the most likely Democratic candidate," the report said.

Rubio, who is a distant third after Donald Trump and Ted Cruz in both the Iowa primary and nationwide polling among registered Republicans would probably be flattered by the prediction.

The issues are also an example of issues in Russia and the US' analysis of each other's political systems, which rarely leads to self-reflection. US-based theories on Russia falling apart often have serious tones, for example, although they remain about as serious in retrospect as the theory of the Russian professor who predicted in 2008, that the US would break up into six pieces after a civil war in 2009.

'Popularity of Congress at All-Time Low'

The forecast, other than reinforcing platitudes, also appears to be based on largely outdated, partisan political journalism from the US. 

"We can expect an even greater radicalization of supporters in the right-wing conservative Tea Party movement, who thanks to their large numbers will seriously complicate the budgetary process and block any insufficiently conservative bills," the report said.

The House of Representatives' Tea Party Caucus is essentially defunct and the House Freedom Caucus, which formed in 2015 with many of the same principles, only attracted 38 of the legislative body's 435 representatives.

That, along with axioms turned into arguments, such as "Americans are very unhappy with [Congress]" appear to further undermine the report's political analysis.

Unclear Aims

With its analysis of US politics inaccurate as it is, its foreign policy overview does not appear much better, as it predicts the US supporting Saudi Arabia's stillborn "anti-terror" coalition against Syrian Kurds, a group which the US (as well as Russia) currently arms and supports with airstrikes.

"[The] US will counteract any attempts to secure, through the political strengthening of Bashar Assad's government, military successes achieved thanks to Russian military support for the Syrian Army and forces in solidarity with it (first and foremost, Syrian Kurds)," the report said.

His analysis of other parts of the world contain portions which are simply wrong, such as the idea that Indonesia's intentions to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement hurt the ASEAN-China Free Trade Agreement (ACFTA). The ACFTA was originally signed in 2002 and last upgraded in November 2015, with no apparent TPP-related hurdles.

It is not clear why the report signed off on by a reputable institution such as the Russian Academy of Sciences's IMEMO featured largely axiomatic statements and almost deliberate mistakes as forecasts, coupled with obviously Soviet-era political language.

However, the organization's reputation, as well as the outlook of policymakers and therefore Russia's national interests could be hurt by such reports. It could also hurt the memory of the late Russian diplomat and policymaker Yevgeny Primakov, who IMEMO is now named after. The forecast itself neglects to review the predictions made for the previous year, outside of a comparison of its economic growth predictions with IMF projections and actual figures.

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forecast, report, election, Russian Academy of Sciences, Marco Rubio, Hillary Clinton, United States, Russia
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  • cmat.wolfgang
    Okay, the Report (and the authors) is financed by BP?

    And a similar result I heard of a few days ago on CNN. It is based on the theory that Rubio has stronger Followers than Trump in the Republican Party which means that some of Trumps current voters would change easier to Rubio (in case he would show better in at least one place at the start) than in Trumps direction.

    But, IMHO, if the start shows that Rubio is too far behind Trump that theory will not work.
    As before it will be important how the results are in the initial states.
    I'm also not convinced that a Democrat will make it.
    The Situation has completely changed to the years when Obama was elected. Then the bad GWB had turned off a lot of intelligent voters and the Media. Now, it almost looks like that another backlash happens from Obama's last years domestic politics. Too many crimes, bad economy and problems in the homeland. That plays in fvor of a change of the elected Party. And many times elections are decided based on Economy and US stock market and not based on foreign politics.
  • Sam Handwich, sorry to disagree with you but she is NOT a piece!
  • Porkbelly Porkerpig
    TRUMP defeats Sanders in the 2016 election.
    Hillary disqualified by shrilly voice in emails.
  • vvj3080
    The report does not predict but on purpose declares Hilary as the winner so that the world gets prepared for a witch in a worse case scenario, who have been supporting regime change at the behest of the devilish Al Saud family resulting in more than a million dead. In short, defeating this satanic wave should be relentless.
  • FlorianGeyer
    I can predict a statement in the future from LaClinton now. It will likely say " I did NOT have sex with that woman " lol.
  • puffinwillow
    useless report and waste of time.... and what would Russians know of US politics? As much as some American living in the USA about Russian politics... not much
  • puffinwillow
    having lived in Russia, they know as much - not much about USA, and USA knows about Russia... their minds are different and geographically remote... really these peoples have no understanding of each other... reading the propaganda media from both nations won't help...
  • Mikhas, your very close on the nose!!!
  • I predicted this six months ago. THE REASON, NO ONE CAN BE GIVEN THE PRESIDENCY UNLESS YOU ARE ACCEPTED INTO THE N.W.O. PURPLE CIRCLE!!! Forget about elections, they are OUT of the question. The next president was given the position, meaning Clinton, well before the elections started. My bet is Clinton BECAUSE of her husbands previous QUALIFICATIONS and N.W.O. commitment!!!
  • Mark Gewissin reply topuffinwillow(Show commentHide comment)
    puffinwillow, LOL Many of the posts on this site are testimony to that!
  • Mark Gewiss
    The American right wing is currently making a strong case that she is too unwell - or as her long-time friend Trump has been delicately putting it, "she doesn't have the stamina" - to even mount a successful election campaign, let alone serve as president.

    In late 2012 she received treatment and monitoring of a thrombosis in a cerebral vein: that is, the removal of a blood clot between her skull and brain during a 30-day hospital stay. Now on blood thinners, even a small bump on the head could give her a major stroke.

    Plus there's been anecdotal evidence of fainting spells... and her unscheduled and sketchy "pee break" during a recent debate...
  • cavedeborah
    I certainly hope this scientist's prediction is wrong. This woman is the last person the US needs as Commander in Chief. She is the personification of Wall Street collusion with The Administration and Congress. She is Big Banks. She cannot be trusted, like her husband.
  • michaelin reply toMark Gewiss(Show commentHide comment)
    Mark agreed. The other thing is the way she has changed - gotten older (sicker?), to have her in office for four years - I'm another one who doubts her ability to either stay or function in the WH
  • Financed by BP ? Then it's already distorted ! Unless your from the USA you will not have the pulse of what the people are saying. Bernie sanders is being favored more than Hillary. Her scandals are disgusting even her own base. As far as republicans are concerned, Trump and Crew have most of the votes. Rubio,is nowhere near The amount of support for Trump and Cruz. The only way Hillary and Rubio get in would be through voter fraud !
  • rishardhawk
    Western Elite and its tools including The Horrible Monster Hillary Clinton should be removed from the face of this Earth!!!
  • Ivan Zadorozhny
    Not so fast.
  • Ivan Zadorozhnyin reply toPorkbelly Porkerpig(Show commentHide comment)
    Porkbelly Porkerpig, That's a sound prediction.
  • pbecke
    It sounds like an Onion satire on Republican b/s in the form of polls and analyses, not to reflect opinion, but to form it. The Republican 'noise machine', with which the MSM drowns out all but their own propaganda.
  • armor
    Us of NA needs the Constitution suspended for 5 years and let the whoever(Attorney-General ??) , President of the Houses?? run the country as a good dictator, the people watching, the GOOD people watching of course....:) Armor, on drugs , surely !!!
  • megargy
    When Russians decide to do Stupid - they really go all out to impress !

    Hillary = WW3 ...... capiche ?
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