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Russia Accelerates Its Pivot to Asia

Russia Accelerates Its Pivot to Asia
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Premier Dmitry Medvedev made a landmark trip to Vietnam and Thailand while Chinese Foreign Minister spent three days in Moscow.

In Hanoi Prime-Minister Medvedev reached an agreement for the Southeast Asian giant to join the Eurasian Union Free Trade Area in the near future, while he floated the idea to Thailand’s leaders while in Bangkok. Concurrently, the Chinese Foreign Minister also partook in a three-day visit to the Russian capital to discuss the bilateral strategic partnership and prepare for Xi Jinping’s symbolic May 9th visit.  But Russia isn’t the only one pivoting to Asia, as the US is also intensely focusing on the continent nowadays, too.

In an article entitled “Vietnam and the Zen of Juggling”, written by M. K. Bhadrakumar and carried by Asia Times, the former Indian diplomat writes: “Indeed, [Eurasian Union] is that same baby that former U.S. secretary of state Hillary Clinton in a fit of anger once vowed to strangle in its cradle. She had said, “We [US] know what it is and we are trying to figure out effective ways to slow down or prevent it.” Clinton saw the EEU as an invidious move by President Vladimir Putin to “re-Sovietise the region.” The remarks back in December 2012  sound ominous today against the backdrop of the regime change Ukraine, et al.”

Andrew Korybko: Russia has taken concrete moves to manifest its pivot to Asia. Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev having paid a historic visit to Vietnam and Thailand. In Hanoi, he reached an agreement for the South East Asian Giant to join the Eurasian Union Free Trade Area in the near future. He floated the same idea to Thailand’s leaders while in Bangkok. Concurrently, the Chinese Foreign Minister also took a three day visit to the Russian capital to discuss the bilateral strategic partnership and prepare for Xi Jing Pin symbolic May 9th Visit. But Russia isn’t the only one pivoting Asia, as the US is also intensely focusing on the continent nowadays as well. This is what we are going to discuss in our second section between the lines, focusing on the most provocative provocations of the week! In an article entitled “Vietnam and the Zen of Juggling” written by J M. K. Bhadrakumar in The Asia Times, the former Indian diplomat writes: "Indeed, the Eurasian Union is the same baby than the former U.S. secretary of state Hillary Clinton in a fit of anger once vowed to strangle in its cradle. She had said: the US know what it is and we are trying to figure out effective ways to slow down or prevent it. Clinton saw the EEU as an invidious move by President Vladimir Putin to “re-Sovietize the region”. The remarks back in 2012 sound ominous today against the backdrop of the regime change in Ukraine". The article continues: "2015 becomes an anniversary year for both the US and Russia. It is the 20th anniversary of diplomatic relation between the US and Vietnam and the 65th anniversary of the ties between Russia and Vietnam. The visit by Medvedev and USS Fitzgerald were occasioned by their respective anniversary celebration. That was smart thinking by Hanoi, which enables it to raise diplomatic toasts with Moscow and Washington simultaneously year after year, till eternity".

Sergei Strokan: We are heading extremely dramatic developments taking place in Asia-Pacific and obviously they should be taken into the contest of that overlapping pivot situation because we have President Obama’s pivot to Asia’s politics, we have President Putin’s pivot to Asia’s politics. So, that all reminds me of my old younger days when I was a student and I remember how professor Vandarevsky was looking on the world map and saying “Look students, those who control Indian Ocean control the whole world”. So, I would say that in the 21st century, those who control Asia-Pacific, control the whole world. Everybody understands that Asia is a locomotive, but who is going to drive this locomotive? 

Korybko: I’d like to introduce this question to Mr. Kyrill Koktysh, associate professor at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations. Who is going to drive the locomotive of growth in Asia Pacific, would it be Russia, would it be the US, could you see China having some very predominant influence, what’s your take on that?

Kyrill Koktysh, Associate Professor, Institute of International Relations, Russia's Foreign Ministry (studio guest): I don’t think Russia will drive this locomotive, but BRICS union probably will be able to do this, because actually there is high level of combination between their members. BRICS was created like a joke, but it turned in a real union, political and now economical, sharing international policy too. So probably this switch of the balance of power will be in favor of the BRICS countries in my opinion in the nearest year and a half or a bit more.

Korybko: This overlapping of pivots between US and Russia is leading to a new Cold War (according to some people), which is expanding yet to another theatre?

Koktysh: We can speak in this terms of a new Cold War but also we could speak in terms of when one superpower is loosing control of part of the volt and other superpower, I’ll call it BRICS, start to seizure, to control over more and more places. The thing with Asia and the Union between free trade zones, between Eurasian Union and Vietnam is a strong step forward because it maintains strong ties, economic ties, between Vietnam and all the post-soviet countries that made the Eurasian Union, like Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus and Armenia. So, this is a clear sense of growth.

Strokan: Just as a fall optimism of what Mr. Koktysh said, I think that we have to underline the what was the important reason which actually accelerated to Russia that pivoted towards Asia: Western Sanctions. We had to look for alternative markets, we have to look for alternative support, and this is actually why we’ve seen that the Prime Minister Medvedev was the first Russian Prime Minister to visit Thailand in 25 years. Can you imagine?

Korybko: Yes, well, I think that we might see that the western sanctions, unintentionally, could have created a break in Western control over the Asia-Pacific  Region. Joining us right now from Bangkok is Mr. Kanawat Suwannin, a businessman who deals with joint venture projects between Russia and Thailand. As a businessman, what mutual benefits do you see Russia and Thailand gaining by deepening in their collaboration?

Kanawat Suwannin, a businessman who deals with joint venture projects between Russia and Thailand: Difficult to say, in my opinion actually between Russia and Thailand not really is a concrete action yet, everything is just new. What we are doing now is just pivot connections between each other. It still has no action yet, in my opinion.

Korybko: If they were some concrete action and for example Thailand decides to join this Eurasian Union economic and free trade zone in the future, Thailand is known for its close relations with the US, could deepening its partnership with Russia complicate this to a degree or lead to a negative reaction?

Suwannin: Right now, the situation in Thailand, we are under a Coup ‘D’état, so we try to keep the US  away from our internal situations. So we try to track another player like Russia to make sure that the US knows we have another flame. I think Russia it is also looking for a new market: in Europe there are sanctions, so they look east to Thailand and Vietnam, for this case. Another thing is China: Russia already tried to enter to this area but there was no success. I don’t know if this time they are going to success or not. 

Korybko: What’s your assessment about Russia’s pivoting Asia and ASEAN? Do you think it will be a success? And more importantly, do you think the people on the region will be receptive to it?

Suwannin: The position of Thai people about Russians is that Russia still has no concrete action yet in the South East Asia, at the level of the Soviet Union used to have in Vietnam or Cambodia. But it’s difficult to say because, as I know, this is a new action, a new plan, and then I think is just in general the relationship between Russia and South East Asia. I don’t think Russia will lead any country.

Korybko: Now we are joined by Mr. Minh Le, a Vietnamese political commentator. We are discussing Russia’s pivoting to Asia and ASEAN.  We’re wondering, what sectors do you think have the greatest potential for Russian-Vietnamese collaboration?

Minh Le, a Vietnamese political commentator: I’m pleased of the level of collaboration between Russia and Vietnam so far. And for the future, I think that oil and gas, and military technologies will continue to be like the two most crusial areas of collaboration between our two countries. Russia will continue to drill oil with Petrol-Vietnam in the South-China’s sea and Russian corporations will buy big stakes in Vietnamese petrochemical companies. In terms of military cooperation, over 90% of Vietnamese arms are Russian made, like Sukhoi Aircraft, submarines, modern Russian warships and missiles, so I really hope in a future that Russia will continue to sell Vietnam modern military hardware and even transfer to Vietnam some Technologies so we can start producing for ourselves. In addition to those two essential areas (Oil and Weapons),  the production of machinery, such as Russian cars, Russian commercial airplanes, like the Sukhoi Superjet 100, and the diamonds in Vietnam will be very visible and beneficial for the two countries. Also, the nuclear plan in Vietnam will be implemented very soon, and it will be very important in the national security for energy in the future. In the last 5 years, the trade between the two countries grew at about 20% a year, and I’m very glad but after the FTA that’s going to be signed in Vietnam and Eurasia Union, I hope that the volumes of trade between Vietnam and Russia goes up to 10 Billion Dollars a year by 2020.

Korybko: From your comments, it seems to me that Russia would like to use Vietnam as a Springboard for expanding its influence in the region. I’m wondering what’s your take on this and how do you think Vietnam can help Russia and ASEAN, and how could Russia conversely help Vietnam in the Eurasian Union?

Minh: In terms of trade, is most important part, the recent sanctions by the US and European Union on Russia have done small damage to the economy and its currency, and Russia definitely wants to benefit from improving the economic ties with the ASEAN region including Vietnam. After the FTA is signed, between the Eurasia Union and Vietnam, many of the Russian products such as daily products, steel, heavy machinery, oil and gas products is going to quickly penetrate the Vietnamese markets and is going to most strongly be exported to other ASEAN countries as intermediate products. On the other hand, Vietnam will benefit a lot from this pact with the EEU because we’ll have the chance to export rice, fish, food, textile and wooden products to the Eurasian Union and its going to give a lot of wealth to our country. After Vietnam becomes a successful story, other ASEAN countries will want to sign the FTA with the Eurasia Union as well, so it’s going to improve the influence of Russia to the Region. Russia could leverage on the Vietnamese military base, for its more influence, like for example the Military Port, which means acute logistics, with Russian airplanes, bombers and expeditions to the Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean. The presence of Russian’s military in Vietnamese soil could help to bring some stability to our country. I’m sure that Russia’s influence in this region will strongly grow.

Korybko: Do you think that Russia could use its positive relation both with Vietnam  and China to help manage the South China Sea Islands dispute between both countries and help to find a solution?

Minh: It’s a very sensitive issue between Vietnam and China. They are two old time neighbors and we have some different issues with each other, and I think definitely that China and Russia could play a very positive role and settle this dispute. Russia could continue to provide Vietnam with more modern weapon to help to modernize and strengthen our military. Vietnam is not going to use its military to intimidate any other country. But a stronger Vietnamese navy will do a much better job in maintaining stability and cooperation in the region. Secondly, Russia is definitely a permanent member of the UN Security Council with a strong veto power and a big voice in maintaining peace and stability around the world, including the South China Sea. Finally, Russia is a big supplier of arms to both China and Vietnam, so definitely Russia has a lead way and an important role in trying to prevent any kind of conflicts from escalating and maintaining peace in the region.

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