Both sides in Ukraine conflict signed a much-awaited treaty aimed at ending hostilities, which claimed thousands of lives and put the war-torn eastern regions on the brink of humanitarian catastrophe. Twelve-point memorandum, banning military action in Ukraine came as result of grueling negotiations held in Minsk and brokered by Russia and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe.
Studio guest Victor Mizin, Deputy Director of the Institute of Strategic Assessment, Vyaceslav Pazdnyak, head of “Wider Europe” Project, Minsk, Belarus, Andrei Sushentsov, managing partner with Moscow-based “Foreign Policy Analysis Group”, and Dr. Anastasia Nesvetailova, Reader in International Politics at City University London, shared their opinions with Radio VR.
Victor Mizin: I do not share the optimism. It is a good thing that a ceasefire is now installed but the positions of the two sides are so widely apart. Kiev is, of course, for a united Ukraine and the people in Donbas want something like independence, if not joining Russia. So, what we will see there? Hopefully, not the resumption of fighting, but many experts predict that it will be something like another frozen conflict, probably on the model of Transnistria or Nagorno-Karabakh.
If we can predict anything, do you think this moment of calm is sustainable?
Victor Mizin: I hope so, because the Ukrainian army just has no equipment and no weapons to continue fighting. And I think it was the major reason for Kiev to come to the ceasefire. But with the planned elections in the entire Ukraine, which those separatist regions do not want to take part in, there would be more and more disengagement and the crisis would only be exacerbated. So, I'm on a more pessimist side here.
Are all the points of the 12-point plan being followed?
Vyaceslav Pazdnyak: My impression is that the plan is being followed. The most important thing is that there is a ceasefire. As for the implementation, I think it is going to take a lot of time and effort to follow through, and press every point to its ultimate completion.
Some experts are using the term “Minsk peace process”. What do you make out of that phenomenon and where will it bring the Ukrainian conflict?
Vyaceslav Pazdnyak: First of all, it is rather arguable that we are facing the so-called Minsk process. The Ukrainian crisis is a very strange phenomenon and it cannot be framed into some sort of a classical concept of a crisis or a conflict. Minsk has been the place for consultations. Now, as the consultations proceed further on, we can label it as a process, but, normally, we are discussing conflict settlement processes when we have not consultations, but full-fledged mechanisms of the negotiations.
So far, Minsk only potentially is a process of a conflict settlement as such. We have kind of a preparation for a possible process and, in that sense, Minsk is a fairly successful beginning. What will the future bring is again a disputable question. We have too many factors to consider and one would be in a difficult position to predict the outcome.
Petro Poroshenko mentioned that there’s been no fighting for the first time. Is this a sign of a long-lasting peace and a good development in order to lift the sanctions?
Dr. Anastasia Nesvetailova: There are two sides to this, as usual. Sanctions in the world economy have historically proven to be a little bit sticky. So, whilst they are more or less straightforward to get introduced, it does take some time to get rid of them completely. It will be a relief if some of them do get removed for various international business contracts, but it will not be one-size package being lifted from Russia.
On the other hand there certainly are forces within the EU, and they are quite powerful forces, who would like to see this happen. But it is a matter of international negotiation and there are a lot of variables in this conflict that are, unfortunately, unpredictable or not entirely calculable. And the ceasefire or the lasting peace really depends on people on the ground, and so far they have proven not to be entirely controllable.
Poroshenko was speaking about the Ukrainian EU integration, but at the same time it seems that it would be quite a bumpy road.
Dr. Anastasia Nesvetailova: There are political aspirations and plans, but there are businesses and finances and debts on the ground. The Ukrainian economy is largely destroyed. I've just recently revised the 8-priority plan that the Ukrainian President has identified for the country. And he is talking about a complete reform of the state. So, it is a very long-term ambition and no organization, including the EU, would like to have a failing state in its orbit.
Andrei Sushentsov: It is actually not clear what is the overall strategy that Kiev currently has towards the rebels’ controlled territories. Kiev has already said that it wants to maintain a unitary character of the Ukrainian state and doesn’t want to make any sacrifices. Right now it seems that Kiev wants to postpone the overall settlement of this conflict for at least several years, when it either would have enough resources to unilaterally conclude this conflict militarily, or some events or a situation will come that would favour the Kiev position more.
