Indeed, there are a lot of striking and disturbing resemblances between the ongoing conflict in Syria and the 1914 crisis that resulted in the First World War, Pillar emphasizes in his article for The National Interest.
"The prospect of the Syrian conflict remaining unsettled for years and thus providing many opportunities for it to grow into something bigger is the starting point for spinning out escalatory scenarios. But some more specific attributes of that conflict have greater and more disturbing similarities to the 1914 crisis. One is the multiplicity of players, from outside as well as inside Syria and the region, who perceive themselves as having a stake in the conflict," the CIA veteran elaborates.
To complicate matters further, the perception about stakes is closely related to the tendency to regard the war in Syria as part of a greater conflict between large coalitions.
"This view amplifies the perceived stakes ever further and also brings into play a sense of obligation to friends and allies," the expert remarks.
Unsurprisingly, Saudi Arabia and Turkey are trying to use the crisis to their geopolitical advantage, by making every effort to drag the US and NATO in the Middle Eastern conflict.
The overthrow of Bashar al-Assad has become an idée fixe for Riyadh, prompting the Gulf monarchy to throw money to arm anti-Assad Sunni extremists. In its turn, Ankara has become obsessed with the Kurdish issue, hunting Kurdish militants in both Turkey and Syria.
"The potential for Turkey dragging the United States into bigger trouble is made all the greater by its status as a party to the North Atlantic Treaty," the CIA veteran stresses.
As a result, the international community is now inclined to see Riyadh and Ankara as nothing less than troublemakers and part of a problem in the Middle East.
"The Turkish-Russian line of conflict, which underlay multiple Russo-Turkish wars across several centuries, could be at the center of escalation and expansion of the Syrian conflict. If so, there would be shades again of World War I, in which the Russian and Ottoman Empires were on opposite sides," the expert underscores.
The Syrian Arab Army, backed by the Russian Air Forces, is close to liberating Syria's largest city of Aleppo. In this light an opportunity to free Daesh's stronghold Raqqa also emerges for the Damascus-led forces.
How soon will the Syrian army set its course for the Daesh "capital" of Raqqa, English writer and journalist Robert Fisk asked in his article for Independent.
"The everlasting Sunni 'Islamic Caliphate' in Syria doesn't look so everlasting any more. Is this why the Sunni Saudis have suddenly offered to send ground troops to Syria? And why the Turks are so flustered? I doubt if anyone is weeping in Shia Iran," Fisk emphasizes.
The journalist echoed Pillar's concerns regarding weird resemblances between the current conflict in Syria and the beginning of the First World War.
He warned that NATO member Turkey may unleash a new world war by launching a ground operation in Syria: "…we'll find ourselves in another Gavrilo Princip moment — and we all know what happened in 1914."
"It is a reason to give high priority to efforts to secure ceasefires and to realize that tamping down this still-local war is more important than prosecuting the war to obtain a particular local result," Pillar underscores.
Meanwhile, the US and Russia have finally agreed on a Syria ceasefire starting on February 27.
"The United States and Russia, as co-chairs of the ISSG [International Syria Support Group] and ISSG Ceasefire Task Force, announce the adoption on February 22, 2016, of the Terms for a Cessation of Hostilities in Syria attached as an Annex to this statement, and propose that the cessation of hostilities commence at 00:00 (Damascus time) on February 27, 2016," the official statement reads.
The decision has received high praise from the international community.
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| 2 | Edit | Delete Bit belated Pillar what your saying is spot on! but why have you not foreseen the world war dangers of the US driven NATO ring of fire around Russia! Reply 
| 0 | Edit | Delete It also resembles the outbreak of WWII where you have a country/state, in this case the US, committing international aggression and embarking on a path of unlimited imperialism for complete domination, just like the Nazis in the 1930s. Reply 
| 0 | Edit | Delete What a lovely tale, Assad and his wife about to be assassinated, most probably by a CIA hireling. Reply 
| 0 | Edit | Delete I think there fore i lack what i could not think to consider but i digress:
Show new comments (0)ivanwa88
This conflict may be resolved but only because Russia made it so! If US thinks Russia will remain tolerant to the 50 year old plan to create a ring of fire around Russia then your powers as a analyst are appalling! The threat of a world war is far from over till a sensible balance is reached and a return to International law is respected. Surely it is people with your experience that should be driving this change in America!!?
rasoj
Mother Gorilla
The conditions of the current events is absolutely orchestrated in Clandestine planning offices and strategic services organizations of many nations, alliances & etc.
So, with the condition's clearly similar to WW1 breakout events.
Than the people who have planned the current happenings within Syria.
From far outside the Syrian borders.. happen to be the Victor's of WW1, WW2.
But, in 1812 those same nations we're defeated both in North America & in Eurasia.
The occurence of financial manipulation's which stoke emotions and defensive/offensive sentiments are absolutely linked to this process.
So i wonder, with the battle line being drawn at Damascus. The struggle for the soul of humanity could the last 300 years of Global War be finally coming to an End?
As the empire's that have been usurped, now Heel, to the very creative force that had divided and conquered, Kingdom(S), Empire(S), Nation(S), Countrie(S).
AS the nature of empircal data, science & philosophy we again stand in the vectored arrangement of inter-personal experience.
As a species, are we being played by member's of our Species?
I think so. But by thinking so, i realize than i am not thinking about what i have not come to consider. So in this.. i may think but know not to cling to the nature of philosphy as the moment of realization is always lineal and passed.
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