Lavrov Gives Syria Ceasefire '49' Percent Chance of Success

Lavrov said that Russia is pessimistic about the prospects of a successful Syria ceasefire, which faces the issue of having over 1,500 groups agree to a ceasefire they did not take part in drawing up.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said that the chance of a successful ceasefire in Syria was around "49" out of 100, speaking at a panel at the Munich Security Conference on Saturday, AP reported.

Despite the urgency of the new truce agreement, which does not include Kurds or terrorist factions of the Syrian opposition, there has been little expectation of a successful truce. At the same panel, German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier put his expectation at '51' percent.

"If we are moving closer to practical goals of [a] truce, then without cooperation between the military nothing will work out," AP quoted Lavrov as saying.

Kerry tells Ashraf Ghani he'd heard Lavrov put the chances of success for new Syria plan at 49%. "I like his optimism,” Kerry, via pooler

— Laura Rozen (@lrozen) February 13, 2016

One of the main difficulties could be coordinat​ing the actual ceasefire. Outside of major rebel groups such as al-Qaeda's al-Nusra Front and Ahrar al-Sham, which are not part of the ceasefire deal, many relatively tiny groups operate under the Free Syrian Army umbrella name.

"There are 1,500 militias out there that are all going to have to abide by this ceasefire. They've had no input into this," Joshua Landis, a Syria analyst at head of the University of Oklahoma's Center for Middle East Studies  told CNN.

With conflicts that involve groups not attached to the ceasefire ongoing, groups that are attached to the ceasefire, such as FSA militias, could face a choice between long-term allies and a short-term initiative with an opponent.