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Stratfor: Pain of Cheap Oil to Drive Iraqi Kurds Closer to Turkey

© REUTERS / Sertac Kayar Turkish riot police use a water cannon to disperse Kurdish demonstrators during a protest against a curfew in Sur district and security operations in the region, in the southeastern city of Diyarbakir, Turkey January 17, 2016
Turkish riot police use a water cannon to disperse Kurdish demonstrators during a protest against a curfew in Sur district and security operations in the region, in the southeastern city of Diyarbakir, Turkey January 17, 2016 - Sputnik International
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US-based geopolitical intelligence firm Stratfor said in a report that Kurdistan Regional Government in Iraq will more readily rely on Turkey to keep oil exports and revenues flowing amid financial problems caused by low commodity prices.

A fighter of the Kurdish People's Protection Units (YPG) fires an anti-aircraft weapon from Tel Tawil village in the direction of Islamic State fighters positioned in the countryside of the town of Tel Tamr February 25, 2015 - Sputnik International
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WASHINGTON (Sputnik) The Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) in Iraq will more readily rely on Turkey to keep oil exports and revenues flowing amid financial problems caused by low commodity prices, the US-based geopolitical intelligence firm Stratfor said in an analysis report on Thursday.

“Persistent financial strain will continue to drive the Arbil government closer to Turkey, whose infrastructure is crucial to the KRG's ability to export its oil," the report stated.

Since June 2015, Iraqi Kurdistan has exported oil independently of the central government in Baghdad. However, the Iraqi government legally challenged KRG’s actions in an attempt to keep the region under its control.

“Baghdad has threatened to blacklist energy companies doing business with the KRG, refusing to recognize any contracts that Arbil has entered into,” the report said.

Stratfor argued that the problems facing the KRG government, including the legal issue with Baghdad, will push Arbil closer to Ankara, allowing Turkey to play a greater role in the region.

At present, the KRG maintains about $14 billion in debt, including $4 billion it owes oil companies, according to the report. Stratfor suggested that the financial strain also impacts the morale of the Kurdish Peshmerga forces that are fighting the Islamic State terror group, also known as Daesh.

In December, Russian Defense Ministry released satellite photos asserting that Turkey has been buying oil from the Islamic State. The terror group is outlawed in Russia as well as in numerous other countries.

KRG spokesman Safeen Dizayi stated, however, the released photos showed Kurdish trucks transporting oil to the Turkish port of Ceyhan.

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