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Can Google Search Results Predict Brexit?

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In the run up to the 2015 General Election Google released their data showing David Cameron to be the "most searched for" leader of a political party. The result of the election, returning a Tory majority government, came as a shock to most pollsters and political commentators.

Earlier this month, Google published its data on which side of the EU referendum campaign had featured highest in online searches. But can Google search data really give us insight into which campaign is the most popular? Can Google really act as a good predictor of elections?

© Photo : Google"Leave" or "Stay"? Brexit in Google search
Leave or Stay? Brexit in Google search - Sputnik International
"Leave" or "Stay"? Brexit in Google search

Google's data also gives a list of the most asked questions, on both sides of the campaign. The most asked question relating to a leave vote is, "Why should we leave the EU?" and perhaps unsurprisingly, the most asked question on the remain side is, "Why should we stay in the EU?"

Neither of these questions point to a preference in voters toward the campaign they are digitally interacting with, in fact it is just as likely that a person wishing to stay in the EU would Google why people may want to leave, as it is that potential leave voters are asking the question.

Similar data produced by Twitter shows that the Leave campaign is spoken about on the social media site far more than Stronger In — 66.3% of tweets being about the leave campaign to just 33.3% about Remain.

Yet not all tweets about the Leave campaign are really in support of a Brexit.

Looking at searches in other European countries the word Brexit appears in almost every question, such as the most searched question about the EU referendum in France, "Why do the British want a Brexit?"

The word Brexit has become synonymous with the EU referendum, and Google searches point to that. With many people asking, "how are you voting in Brexit," perhaps Google's search results may not be truly indicative of the voting intentions of Britain.

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