Indeed, the current roadmap that G7 leaders have agreed on aims at doing away with fossil fuels by 2100 — whereas 2036 is widely regarded as the ultimate deadline to avoid the worst.
Luckily, according to new research, entirely phasing out fossil fuels could take much less than previouilsy expected: a mere ten years.
A paper, published in Energy Research and Social Science by Benjamin Sovacool from the University of Sussex, tries to disentangle the conundrum by looking at previous fuel transitions humankind has successfully carried out in the past.
Fossil fuels could be phased out within next decade, says new study by @SussexNRGGroup director Benjamin Sovacool https://t.co/mwydprY91s
— Sussex Energy Group (@SussexNRGGroup) April 18, 2016
For instance, it took European people about 96 to 160 years to stop using wood and embrace coal. But the steam-to-electricity shift took a much shorter timespan: only 47 to 69 years throughout the continent.
This, according to the research, shows that the pace of energy transitions is speeding up, and that the next change (to clean energy sources) could take just about a decade.
Sovacool, for instance, points out the case of Canada's Ontario, where coal hasn't being used in 11 years; and the case of Brazil, where a state-engineered program could allow 90 percent of the country's cars to run on ethanol within six years.
Nonetheless, the most important thing is, as always, humanity — the paper says that without individual efforts and political will, no problem will be solved.
"The mainstream view of energy transitions as long, protracted affairs, often taking decades or centuries to occur, is not always supported by the evidence," Sovacool said in a statement.
"Moving to a new, cleaner energy system would require significant shifts in technology, political regulations, tariffs and pricing regimes, and the behavior of users and adopters.
"Left to evolve by itself — as it has largely been in the past-this can indeed take many decades. A lot of stars have to align all at once. But we have learnt a sufficient amount from previous transitions that I believe future transformations can happen much more rapidly," he added.
