Hatice Karahan, an expert at Turkey's Foundation for Political, Economic and Social Research (SETA), spoke with Sputnik Turkey about the state of the Turkish economy, and the impact of Russian sanctions on the country's economic well-being.
"The volume of exports going to Russia has faced a decline. Naturally, Russian sanctions played the main role. In January, exports declined by 65%. According to Turkish Exporters' Assembly's figures, the most serious blow was faced by fruit and vegetable exporters, with the textile and automotive industries also observing a decline," Karahan said.
The impact on the tourism industry is another matter, according to the economist. "In 2015, unfavorable trends in the Russian economy saw an 18% decline in the number of Russian tourists vacationing in Turkey. We believe that, in connection with the additional wave of Russian anti-Turkish sanctions, the decline in this sector is likely to continue into the future. The consequences are likely to manifest themselves most strongly in the summer months."
Aegean Touristic Enterprises and Lodging Association Chairman Mehmet Isler told the newspaper that the country faces a shortfall of nearly 4.5 million Russian tourists this year, which could lead to some $4.5 billion in lost revenues in 2016.
All-in-all, Karahan noted that it would be difficult to put an exact figure on the losses Turkey will face this year stemming from its diplomatic conflict with Russia. "There is an optimistic scenario, which suggests that economic relations between Turkey and Russia will see a warming. Other possibilities include Turkey's reorientation to alternative markets, [especially] in those sectors which feel the impact of Russian sanctions most acutely. In any case, it's already clear now that the economic restrictions imposed by Moscow will have a significant impact on the economic situation."
In any case, Karahan suggests, "we can only talk about a partial substitution, as fully compensating for the losses caused by the severance of economic relations with Russia cannot be compensated through Iran."
Relations between Russia and Turkey deteriorated sharply late last year after the Turkish Air Force downed a Russian Su-24M jet deployed for the anti-terrorist operation in Syria, citing airspace violations. Moscow disputed Ankara's claims and introduced a series of anti-Turkish economic measures, including sanctions on imports and a ban on the sale of tour-packages.