Sputnik has discussed this with Lawk Ghafuri, a London-based political analyst, who specialises in international business and economy.
Sputnik: Has the prime minister driven herself into the corner and admitted her ineptitude to find a compromise do you think? If so, what could she undertake now to sell this deal?
And that makes the situation for Theresa May really shaky because she is trying to find other solutions but it’s quite hard for her to get other deals because the way and the road for Theresa May are blocked, she cannot have any negotiation about the Brexit deal. At the same time, the only way she can do this is that she has to be ready for compromises, and if she does so the UK Parliament will not accept that by any means.
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I think that she is in a way which is not going to work in both sides; she is going to be a huge bastard because what is happening now in the European Union countries as well is a sign that the UK is trying to be out of the European Union, but at the same time to have an Irish border with the European Union which is not going to change anything. And the European Union is not going to accept any more deals or, let’s say, renegotiation about this Brexit deal.
Sputnik: Mrs May has been very dogged in her determination to stay in control of the ship and navigate these uncharted waters; and a lot of people have applauded and admired her for it. But in a lot of circumstances now this is really the last saloon that she is standing in; what’s the general feedback you’re getting in the city?
The pound is the lowest since April 2017 and that’s a huge step back for the UK. At the same time, people are trying to get or understand the deal, or make preparations if there’s a no-deal scenario. I think that the companies and the people are in a rollercoaster because they don’t get what’s happening, and they don’t understand how to prepare themselves.
Sputnik: Do you believe that the country is now facing a no-deal scenario? If not, do you believe there’s going to be a general election if Mrs May is going to stay in control?
Lawk Ghafuri: The Parliament would never accept any deal from Theresa May because she is trying to always come back with the same deal. The Parliament has already rejected this deal and [would] reject any further deal. To be honest, I’m not optimistic about any deal that the Parliament will accept. Regarding Theresa May’s situation or her position in the government, she is trying to be really powerful; and I’ve just heard that she is going to have a meeting with the Cabinet team and the ministers to make preparations for a no-deal scenario.
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And that’s clearly a sign that if the UK ends up with no deal, that’s going to be a disaster for the UK market and economy. Theresa May, and not only Theresa May but the Conservative Party will have a huge step back against the Labour Party in the next general election in the UK.
Sputnik: Do you think that Mrs May has got this underhand scenario that she just wants the UK to stay in the European Union but with a better set of negotiated conditions? Do you think that has something to do with it because the EU has always been very complimentary about her and she may feel some kind of comfort being in the European Union? Do you think there is a scenario about her wanting to renegotiate the UK settlement?
At the same time, she is not trying to make the MPs and the Parliament comfortable because the MPs and the Parliament need solid deals and plans and that’s not happening at the right time; it’s not happening at the moment to be honest. What Theresa May is trying to do is to pull the legs of the European leaders to compromise for the UK and I think that will never happen because the European leaders were making statements that they will not renegotiate about the Brexit deal. I think that for the next five-six months Theresa May will face a lot of difficulties and more struggles to get a vote in the Parliament.
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I think her spokesman has already said that the government decided to have a vote before January 21 which is the deadline for the Brexit deal. And if that isn’t going to happen before January 21, they need to sit down to make no-deal preparations. And that’s going to be a disaster for Theresa May to be honest.
The views expressed in this article are solely those of Lawk Ghafuri and do not necessarily reflect the official position of Sputnik.
