Assassination Attempt
According to reports, the US assassination attempt on al-Baghdadi targeted a convoy he was traveling in on Saturday. The strike occurred in Qaim in Anbar province, which straddles the Iraqi-Syrian border. The Pentagon confirms that an airstrike did in fact take place, but did not specify whether al-Baghdadi was present. The Iraqis say he was. For their part, ISIL writes on Twitter that reports that the leader was killed should not be believed. If al-Baghdadi was critically injured during the strike, this may lead to speculation about who would inherit the ‘Caliph’s’ crown.
The Terrorist Hydra
In fact, al-Baghdadi’s death may not be that important to damaging ISIL, other than dealing a PR loss to the group. This is because ISIL’s structure is something of a hydra, with many leaders running its multifaceted operations. Unlike Al Qaeda, which was centered around the charisma and popularity of one man, ISIL brings together a diverse group of terrorists and their supporters that are united under the concept of an extreme ‘Islamic State’. In other words, it is not necessarily one run centrally by al-Baghdadi. With Al Qaeda, by the time of Bin Laden’s assassination, he was little more than a figurehead and had little, if any, operational role in the group. Al-Baghdadi, by contrast, is actively engaged on the ground in Syria and Iraq, but is not the group’s sole leader.
To Kill An Idea: Analysis
The real challenge when it comes to ISIL, then, seems not to kill its leadership, but to attack the ideology behind it. Al-Baghdadis will come and go, but so long as the concept behind international jihad and Islamic extremism stays intact, the threat isn’t going anywhere. ISIL has made its historical impact not only by its destruction and violence, but also through innovations in its social media and recruitment techniques. These have allowed it to reach millions of potential recruits and achieve global notoriety. Adding to that, ISIL has also created an extensive social infrastructure to assist with terrorist infiltration and financing, and this too will have to be combated if the threat is to be properly dealt with. In this respect, ISIL truly is larger than just one man, so even if he is taken out of the picture, it’s not likely to have as big an impact on the group or the general Islamic extremist movement as one may initially think.
