Oil Production in Russia Remains Stable – OPEC

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries published a monthly report that highlights the key trends in the hydrocarbon industry around the world.

Oil production in Russia in May remained at the level of 9.6 million barrels per day, according to a fresh report by OPEC released on Thursday.

"Russia's liquids production in May fell m-o-m by 49 tb/d to an average of 10.9 mb/d. This includes 9.6 mb/d of crude oil and 1.3 mb/d of NGLs and condensate," the report said.

OPEC has maintained its forecast for Russia's oil and condensate production in 2023 at the level of 10.28 million barrels per day and still expects it to decline by 750,000 barrels per day, according to the organization's fresh report published on Thursday.

Russian liquids production in Q1 amounted to 10.1 mb/d, in Q2 — 10.22mb/d, in Q3 and Q4 — will grow to 10.35 and 10.46 mb/d, respectively, the report said.

"For 2023, Russian liquids production is forecast to drop by 0.75 mb/d to an average of 10.3 mb/d, unchanged from the previous month’s assessment. It is worth noting that the expected contraction takes into account recently announced voluntary production adjustments to the end of 2023," the report read.

Increase in OPEC’s Oil Production

OPEC's oil production increased by 91,000 barrels per day in June — the second month of voluntary output cuts — compared to the level of May to 28.19 million barrels per day, according to its fresh report published on Thursday.

"OPEC-13 crude oil production in June increased by 91 tb/d m-o-m to an average 28.19 mb/d, according to available secondary sources," the report read.

According to OPEC data, the alliance's compliance with the oil production cut deal was fulfilled by 250%, with the organization cutting the production by 1.9 million barrels per day on top of obligations.

Forecast Downgrade for Oil Production in Non-OPEC Countries

OPEC has slightly downgraded its forecast for oil production for 2023 outside the organization and expects an increase by 1.4 million barrels per day to 67.1 million barrels per day, according to its fresh monthly report published on Thursday.

"Non-OPEC liquids production in 2023 is expected to grow y-o-y by 1.4 mb/d to an average of 67.1 mb/d. This is broadly unchanged from last month. Slight downward revisions to OECD Europe, OECD Asia Pacific and Other Asia were largely offset by upward revisions to liquids production in OECD Americas," the report read.

Slight Forecast Upgrade for US

OPEC has slightly upgraded its forecast for the United States' oil and condensate production in 2023 and now expects a rise by 720,000 barrels per day to 12.61 million barrels per day, according to the organization's fresh report published on Thursday.

In the June report, the organization expected an increase by 710,000 barrels per day to 12.59 million barrels per day.

OECD Commercial Oil Stocks

The commercial oil stocks in the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) increased by 20.2 million barrels in May and were below the five-year average by 101 million barrels, according to OPEC's fresh report published on Thursday.

"Preliminary May 2023 data sees total OECD commercial oil stocks up m-o-m by 20.2 mb. At 2,815 mb, they were 139 mb higher than the same time one year ago, but 101 mb lower than the latest five-year average and 140 mb below the 2015–2019 average," the report read.