Football's back, but not as we know it. For a start, the English season is beginning four weeks late, in mid-September, not mid-August and the blackberries are all off the bushes. If that's not strange enough, for the first time, a new campaign will begin without supporters, still, quite ludicrously, being kept out of stadia (even in restricted numbers), due to the UK government's Coronavirus restrictions.
Last year, in happier times, our Sputnik Intelligent Punter's Guide correctly tipped Liverpool for the title at odds of 3-1 and the Reds duly obliged.
But What Will Happen This Year?
Bearing in mind some key factors can help us with our punting.
- Market leaders have an excellent record. Only once this century (Chelsea 2015/6), has the favourite failed to finish in the first three. The favourite or second favourite has won the Premiership in 14 of the last 16 seasons. The most spectacular exception, of course, was Leicester City's stunning 5,000-1 win in 2015-6.
- Regarding the relegation market, in 22 of the last 25 seasons, at least one of the relegated teams had been promoted the previous season. In 2018/19 two promoted sides went straight back down, in 2019/20, it was one (Norwich), so it makes sense to have at least one promoted team in your relegation portfolio.
Teams that narrowly avoided the drop the previous season also have a relatively high chance of falling through the trap-door the following season: 50% of the sides that finished 17th in the last decade went down the following year, while Huddersfield were 16th in 2017/8 and finished bottom a year later.
It's also worth looking at how a team fared in the second half of the previous season, as it's often a good guide. A number of relegated teams, who looked to have been established in the division, ended the season before in a poor run of form, like West Brom in 2018/19 and Bournemouth and Watford last season.
Watford's relegation would have taken many by surprise but a season of struggle was indicated by the Hornet's losing their sting in the final third of the 2019/19 campaign. By contrast, Leicester's amazing 2015-6 campaign followed on from a very strong finish to the 2014-5 season when they did indeed play like champions.
With those key factors in mind, here's my team-by-team guide to the Premiership, followed by some tips for the Championship.
- ARSENAL Odds: 28-1
The Gunners finished well under new boss Arteta, with the season culminating in another FA Cup success. That bodes well for the new campaign and with the prolific Aubameyang firing in the goals, a return to the top four for the first time since 2015 could be on the cards. (Beat Fulham 3-0 away on Saturday).
Prediction: Top four challengers.
- ASTON VILLA Odds: 1000-1.
Just managed to hold on to their newly-acquired Premiership status, as predicted in our IP Guide last year, but half of the teams that have finished in 17th in the last ten years have been relegated a year later, and the Villains look one of the prime candidates for the drop, particularly if star player Grealish departs.
Prediction: Relegated.
- BRIGHTON Odds: 1000-1.
Although they were still threatened by relegation for much of the year new manager Graham Potter made the Seagulls a more enterprising side, particularly away from home where they only lost eight times. Hard to see them improve greatly on last season's 15th, but having strengthened in the transfer market they should be able to stay up.
Prediction: Lower mid-table.
- BURNLEY Odds: 1000-1.
The husky-voiced Sean Dyche continues to work miracles at Turf Moor, safely guiding the Clarets through another season in the top flight. There'll be the usual ups and downs throughout the year, but so long as Dyche stays his well-organised side should be able to maintain a mid-table berth.
Prediction: Mid-table.
- CHELSEA Odds: 11-1.
It was always going to be a transitional season at Stamford Bridge with the relatively inexperienced Frank Lampard taking over in the dugout and playmaker Eden Hazard gone but in fact the Blues did better than fans might have expected, finishing fourth, and reaching another FA Cup final. With the squad significantly strengthened, and lots of exciting young talent at Lampard's disposal, Chelsea look best placed to throw down a challenge to Liverpool and Man City.
Prediction: 3rd.
- CRYSTAL PALACE Odds: 1000-1.
Stability and defensive solidity have been the hallmark of the Roy Hodgson reign, with mid-table finishes each time. It may not be too entertaining for the fans though as Palace scored only 31 goals last season, the lowest tally in the club's history. They'll need to improve on that to avoid being involved in a relegation scrap, with Wilfred Zaha, who scored the only goal in their opening day 1-0 victory over Southampton, key to their fortunes.
Prediction: Lower mid-table.
- EVERTON Odds: 500-1.
Showed noticeable improvement after Ancelotti arrived in December, that indicates a season in the top half of the table lies in store for the Toffees, though they probably won't have enough firepower to challenge for a top-six position.
Prediction: Top half of the table.
- FULHAM Odds: 1500-1.
Four of the last six Championship play-off winners have been relegated the following season (including Fulham themselves in 2018-9), so the omens aren't good for the Cottagers staying up. Lost 3-0 at home to Arsenal on an opening day and it looks like being a long, hard season.
Prediction: Relegated.
- LEEDS Odds: 250-1.
It's great to see the one-time giants of English football back in the big time after a 16-year absence. Although the step up to the Premiership is often a struggle, Wolves and Sheffield United have shown in recent years that you can excel in your first season up, and Leeds are likely to benefit from having an extra season in the Championship, having just missed out on automatic promotion in 2018/19. Their gallant 4-3 defeat at Champions Liverpool on Saturday shows they'll be a match for anyone.
Prediction: Top ten challengers.
- LEICESTER Odds: 250-1.
Talk about a game of two halves. Up to December, Leicester were having a great season, holding a clear second-placed position behind Liverpool in the table. But their performances gradually began to dip, and they finished the season very tamely, winning just three of their last fourteen games. That doesn't augur well for the new campaign and the Foxes could be in for a tough time unless things change.
Prediction: Surprise strugglers.
- LIVERPOOL Odds: 9-4.
As predicted Jurgen Klopp's team landed their first title for 30 years, finishing 18 points clear of runners-up Man City. Can they follow up? Well, it won't be easy as only Man City have won back to back titles in the last decade, and they are unlikely to be as lucky with injuries this time round. While they remain the team to beat, a regalvanised Man City are likely to push them much closer this time round and their rivals could have the edge come the end of the season.
Prediction: Runners-up.
- MAN CITY Odds: 9-10.
Defensive frailties let them down last season, but the backline has been bolstered and with their great goalscoring record (they actually netted more times last season than when winning the title in 2018-9), they have to be fancied to make a strong bid to take the title back to the Etihad.
Prediction: Champions.
- MAN UTD Odds: 16-1.
The Red Devils finished well, after an underwhelming start to the season, to take third place in the table but making the next step up will require further squad strengthening and turning draws (12 last season), into wins. A sustained title challenge is probably another 12 months off, but they will be dangerous in the Cups.
Prediction: Top four challengers.
- NEWCASTLE UTD Odds: 750-1.
Had a better than expected first half of the season under new manager Steve Bruce but did drop away quite badly when the season resumed post-lockdown. That would indicate a season of struggle lies ahead, but the Magpies attack has been strengthened in the close season and they got off to a good start with a 2-0 away win at West Ham on Saturday, raising hopes that they won't be dragged into a relegation battle.
Prediction: Lower mid-table.
- SHEFFIELD UTD Odds: 750-1.
The surprise package of last season, Chris Wilder's newly-promoted Blades did far, far better than anyone expected, with their steely defence enabling them to maintain a position in the top six or seven for much of the season, eventually finishing ninth. This year will be much harder as 'second season syndrome' kicks in, but while they are unlikely to match last year's heroics, their great organisation and admirable team spirit should be enough to keep them out of trouble.
Prediction: Lower mid-table.
- SOUTHAMPTON Odds: 750-1.
Notwithstanding an opening day 1-0 loss at Crystal Palace, the Saints should do ok this season. After a horror start last year, with nadir reached with a 9-0 home defeat by Leicester in September, Ralph Hasenhuttl's team improved significantly, ending the season with four wins and three draws. They should be in the running for a place in the top ten.
Prediction: Upper mid-table.
- TOTTENHAM Odds: 60-1.
Dropped out of the top four for the first time since 2014-5, but they did finish ok, which is quite promising for the new campaign. Mourinho wins something with every club he manages, and with the title looking beyond their reach, they might be worth an interest in the Cups.
Prediction: Top four challengers.
- WEST BROM Odds: 1500-1.
As predicted in my Sputnik Intelligent Punter's Guide to the English Championship, the Baggies proved to be a good bet for promotion, but this is where it gets a lot tougher. Slaven Bilic's boys actually finished quite poorly last season and that doesn't bode well for the new campaign and the avoidance of a fifth relegation since 2002.
Prediction: Relegated.
- WEST HAM Odds: 1000-1.
Lost just one of their last seven games last season to guarantee safety, but began the new campaign with a disappointing 2-0 home defeat to Newcastle, indicating it's likely to be a struggle again. Still, they should have enough about them to stay up.
Prediction: Strugglers.
- WOLVES Odds: 225-1.
With consecutive 7th place finishes Nuno Espirito Santo has done a great job in making Wolves a real force to be reckoned with at the highest level. Last season's efforts were arguably even more impressive than the year before as Wolves had to juggle Premier League football with Europa League commitments. The key to going even higher in the table- they were only three points off 5th place last year- will be turning draws (they had 14 last season), into wins.
Prediction: Top ten again but good outside bet for a Cup.
Verdict: The title race is likely to be between Liverpool and Man City again, but this time the chasing pack, probably led by Chelsea, could get a lot closer to the 'Big Two'.
Man Utd, Arsenal and Spurs will be hopeful of bettering last season's points haul, with Wolves and Everton on their heels, and Leeds and Southampton after them, but Leicester look likely to slip down the table and Sheffield United will find it hard to match last year's top nine placings. The likeliest teams to be relegated on the trends are Aston Villa, Fulham and West Brom.
The Championship
Norwich City finished bottom of the Premiership last year but the Canaries are a yo-yo-club and could make an immediate return, while Swansea, who lost out in the play-offs, after a great late run, are another team fancied for promotion.
Blackburn seem to be going in the right direction under Tony Mowbray and could make the playoffs, while at longer odds, Reading and QPR could do better than last season; both won on an opening day. Barnsley, Wycombe and Rotherham are likely to be in the relegation mix, while Sheffield Wednesday have to overcome a 12 point deduction, which became 9 after their opening day win at Cardiff.
Follow Neil Clark @NeilClark66 and @MightyMagyar
