Participants in the Valdai Discussion Club handed their Russia Development Index 2009-2010 report to Prime Minister Vladimir Putin on Monday. The report claims to reflect the combined opinion of the world's leading experts on current Russian trends.
Twenty-five top Russia specialists from the U.S., UK, Germany, France, Italy, China, Poland, Canada and Japan answered nine questions and gave their ratings on a ten-point scale. The ratings ran from minus five (significant deterioration) to plus five (significant improvement). The results highlighted a marked tendency toward stagnation, primarily in terms of Russia's economic, scientific, and broader social development.
The experts polled believe that these areas have not changed at all over the past year and a half. While the economy may be showing signs of a modest recovery, they say, there is essentially no real modernization, restructuring or diversification. Oil and gas are still the main revenue generators, corruption is rampant and there is almost zero innovation. The experts said they could envisage this situation continuing for another 10-15 years, and that it would be inevitably regressive.
While the Valdai members polled all agreed that Russia is still an attractive trading partner, especially in the energy sector, serious concerns remain when it comes to long-term investment and protectionist policies. They also indicated that Russia must ramp up investment in its education system and encourage individual initiative-taking, particularly given the current underutilization of the country's cultural potential.
The delegates were worried about intolerance and interethnic conflicts and agreed that no improvements have been made on these crucial areas. They also drew attention to deterioration in the development of the political system which they said could spark precisely the instability that the government so fears.
It was not all negative, however, and the report's authors noted that Russia had seen some positive developments in the period 2009-2010, primarily in foreign policy and diplomacy. The Valdai discussion club members agreed that Russia now seems to be an international partner open to much closer cooperation, despite the fact that, largely due to the economic crisis, Russia's role as a global player has declined over the past two years. Moscow has become more involved in international dialog, and is now more open and willing to compromise (as the cases of Poland or the U.S. indicate).
The fear of Russia, which arose after the Georgia war, has dissipated, and the situation in Ukraine is now of only marginal concern. However Russia's military potential continues to look weak. One expert interviewed for the report said that the decision against intervening in Kyrgyzstan indicates a new approach that will develop into a role for Russia as an effective mediator.
Security has also seen some improvements: calmer border zones, no NATO threat and no immediate Asian threat. But Russia's southern border and the Caucasus remain problematic and critical.
The Valdai International Discussion Club, named after the place its first meeting was held, is organized by RIA Novosti, the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy, the magazines Russia Profile.org and Russia in Global Affairs and The Moscow News newspaper. The club brings together around three hundred former government officials, political scientists, lawyers, writers, journalists from a dozen countries.
SOCHI, September 7 (RIA Novosti)
